Objective To analyze the risk factors for dry eye syndrome in patients after cataract surgery, and to construct a risk prediction model. Methods A total of 86 patients who underwent phacoemulsification and intraocular lens (IOL) implantation at Dongcheng Branch, The First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University from January 2026 to March 2026 were selected. According to whether dry eye symptoms occurred within one month after the surgery, they were divided into the dry eye group (40 cases) and the non-dry eye group (46 cases). The preoperative data, ocular-related examination indicators, surgical parameters, and postoperative medication usage of the patients were collected. The severity of diabetes history and hypertension history was stratified (diabetes history was classified as no, well controlled, poorly controlled; hypertension history was classified as no, grade 1, grade 2 and above). Multivariate Logistic regression analysis was used to screen independent risk factors. Based on this, a risk prediction model for dry eye syndrome after surgery was established. Results The incidence of dry eye after surgery was 46.51% (40/86). Multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that age≥65 years, history of diabetes (with poor control), and cumulative dissipated energy (CDE) of phacoemulsification≥12.00 were independent risk factors for dry eye after cataract surgery. The predictive model constructed based on these three independent risk factors had an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.85, a sensitivity of 82.50%, and a specificity of 78.26%. Conclusion Age≥65 years, history of diabetes (with poor control), and cumulative dissipated energy (CDE) of phacoemulsification≥ 12.00 are the independent risk factors for dry eye syndrome after cataract surgery. The predictive model constructed in this study can effectively predict the risk of postoperative dry eye syndrome, and can provide a quantitative reference basis for targeted clinical intervention.