ICU获得性多重耐药肺炎克雷伯菌感染的耐药性分析与风险预测模型构建
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联勤保障部队第九九〇医院

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Analysis of antimicrobial resistance and construction of a risk prediction model for ICU-Acquired MDR-Klebsiella pneumoniae Infection
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The 990th Hospital of Joint Logistics Support Force of Chinese PLA

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    摘要:

    目的 分析重症监护病房(intensive care unit,ICU)获得性多重耐药肺炎克雷伯菌(multidrug-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae,MDR-KP)感染的耐药特征,并构建风险预测模型。方法 回顾性纳入2024年1月至2025年12月中国人民解放军联勤保障部队第九九〇医院ICU收治的146例患者资料,全部患者均于入住ICU 48 h后从无菌体液标本中培养出肺炎克雷伯菌。依据药敏结果分为MDR-KP组(n=66例)与非MDR-KP组(n=80例)。比较两组基线资料、耐药谱特征及临床结局;通过多因素Logistic 回归分析筛选独立危险因素,构建列线图预测模型并以Bootstrap 自抽样法(1 000 次)进行内部验证。结果 MDR-KP组急性生理与慢性健康状况评分系统Ⅱ(acute physiology and chronic health evaluationⅡ,APACHEⅡ)评分、入住ICU前3个月住院史比例、碳青霉烯类暴露史比例、机械通气≥7 d比例、连续性肾脏替代治疗(continuous renal replacement therapy,CRRT)比例及血清白蛋白(albumin,ALB)<28 g/L比例均高于非MDR-KP组(均P<0.05)。MDR-KP组对头孢曲松、头孢他啶、亚胺培南、美罗培南等耐药率显著高于非MDR-KP组,对替加环素均保持高度敏感。MDR-KP组联合使用≥3种抗生素的比例及ICU 住院天数均显著高于非MDR-KP 组(均P<0.001)。多因素分析显示,碳青霉烯类暴露史(OR=4.91)、CRRT(OR=3.48)、机械通气≥7 d(OR=2.30)、血清ALB<28 g/L(OR=2.07)及入住ICU 前3 个月住院史(OR=1.98)是ICU 获得性MDR-KP 感染的独立危险因素(均P<0.05)。构建的列线图模型经Bootstrap 内部验证,校正后曲线下面积(area under the curve,AUC)为0.86(95%CI:0.81~0.92);校准曲线显示,预测概率与实际观测概率一致性较高(Hosmer-Lemeshow 检验P=0.412)。结论 碳青霉烯类暴露史、CRRT、机械通气≥7 d、血清ALB<28 g/L及入住ICU前3个月住院史是ICU获得性MDR-KP感染的独立危险因素,据此构建的列线图预测模型可在药敏结果回报前早期识别高危个体,为精准预警与靶向干预提供依据。

    Abstract:

    Objective To analyze the antimicrobial resistance characteristics of intensive care unit (ICU)-acquired multidrugresistant Klebsiella pneumoniae (MDR-KP) infection and construct a risk prediction model. Methods A retrospective analysis was conducted on the clinical data of 146 patients admitted to the ICU of the 990th Hospital of the Joint Support Force of the People’s Liberation Army from January 2024 to December 2025. All patients had Klebsiella pneumoniae isolated from sterile fluid specimens more than 48 hours after ICU admission. The patients were divided into the MDR-KP group (n=66) and the non-MDR-KP group (n=80) based on the drug sensitivity results. The baseline characteristics, drug resistance profile features and clinical outcomes between the two groups were compared. Through multivariate Logistic regression analysis, independent risk factors were screened out. A nomogram prediction model was constructed and internal validation was conducted using the Bootstrap resampling method (1,000 times). Results Univariate analysis showed that the acute physiology and chronic health evaluation Ⅱ(APACHE II) score, the proportion of patients with a history of hospitalization within 3 months prior to ICU admission, the proportion of carbapenem exposure history, the proportion of mechanical ventilation≥7 days, the proportion of continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT), and the proportion of serum albumin (ALB)<28 g/L in the MDR-KP group were higher than those in the non-MDR-KP group (all P<0.05). The resistance rates of cephalosporin, ceftazidime, imipenem, meropenem, etc. in the MDR-KP group were higher than those in the non-MDR-KP group, and they remained highly sensitive to tigecycline. Multivariate analysis showed that carbapenem exposure history (OR=4.91), CCRT (OR= 3.48), mechanical ventilation≥7 days (OR=2.30), serum ALB<28 g/L (OR=2.07), and a history of hospitalization within 3 months prior to ICU admission (OR=1.98) were independent risk factors for ICU-acquired MDR-KP infection (all P<0.05). The proportion of combined use of≥3 antibiotics in the MDR-KP group and the length of ICU stay were significantly higher than those in the non-MDR-KP group (all P<0.001). The constructed nomogram model was internally validated using the Bootstrap resampling method, and the corrected area under the curve (AUC) was 0.86 (95%CI: 0.81~0.92). The calibration curve showed that the predicted probability was highly consistent with the actual observed probability (Hosmer-Lemeshow test P=0.412). Conclusion Carbapenem exposure history, CRRT, mechanical ventilation≥7 days, serum ALB<28 g/L and a history of hospitalization within 3 months prior to ICU admission are independent risk factors for ICU-acquired MDR-KP infection. The nomogram prediction model constructed accordingly can identify highrisk patients at an early stage prior to the return of antimicrobial susceptibility testing results, supporting precise risk alerting and targeted intervention.

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杨延成. ICU获得性多重耐药肺炎克雷伯菌感染的耐药性分析与风险预测模型构建[J].生物医学工程学进展,2026,(4):37-41

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  • 收稿日期:2026-05-08
  • 最后修改日期:2026-07-22
  • 录用日期:2026-07-28
  • 在线发布日期: 2026-10-20
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