全膝关节置换术后发生并发症的列线图预测模型构建
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郑州市中心医院

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Construction of a Nomogram prediction model for complications after total knee arthroplasty
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Zhengzhou Central Hospital

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    摘要:

    目的 探究全膝关节置换术(total knee arthroplasty,TKA)后发生并发症的危险因素,并构建列线图预测模型。方法 纳入郑州市中心医院2022年6月至2025年6月收治的184例TKA患者开展回顾性研究,按术后是否发生并发症分为发生组和未发生组。比较两组临床资料,采取Logistic回归分析TKA患者术后发生并发症的影响因素,构建列线图,同时通过受试者操作特征(receiver operator characteristic,ROC)曲线、校准曲线及决策曲线分析(decision curve analysis,DCA)完成模型验证。结果 本研究共纳入184例TKA患者,依据术后并发症发生情况分为发生组(41例,22.28%)与未发生组(143例,77.72%)。两组体重指数(body mass index,BMI)、手术时间、住院时间、是否接受专业功能训练、视觉模拟评分法(visual analogue scale,VAS)评分比较差异均有统计学意义(均P<0.05)。多因素Logistic回归分析显示,体重指数(body mass index,BMI)、手术时间、住院时间、术后VAS评分为TKA患者术后并发症的独立危险因素(均P<0.05)。ROC曲线显示,列线图模型的曲线下面积(area under the curve,AUC)为0.958(95%CI:0.926~0.990);校准曲线显示,模型预测概率与实际概率一致性较好,模型校准效能佳;DCA结果显示,在多数阈值范围内模型曲线高于两条极端曲线,临床净获益较高。结论 BMI、手术时间、住院时间、术后VAS评分是TKA患者术后发生并发症的影响因素,基于上述因素构建的列线图模型可用于临床预测TKA患者术后并发症的发生风险,辅助制订针对性干预对策。

    Abstract:

    Objective To explore the risk factors for complications after total knee arthroplasty (TKA) and to construct a nomogram prediction model. Methods A retrospective study was conducted on 184 patients with TKA admitted to Zhengzhou Central Hospital from June 2022 to June 2025. They were divided into occurrence group and non-occurrence group according to whether postoperative complications occurred. The clinical data of the two groups were compared. Logistic regression analysis was used to analyze the factors affecting postoperative complications in TKA patients, and the nomogram and receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration curve and decision curve analysis (DCA) were constructed for verification. Results A total of 184 patients with TKA were included in this study. According to the postoperative complications, they were divided into the occurrence group (41 cases, 22.28%) and the non-occurrence group (143 cases, 77.72%). There were significant differences in body mass index (BMI), operation time, hospitalization time, whether receiving professional functional training, and visual analogue scale (VAS) score between the two groups (all P<0.05). After multivariate Logistic regression analysis, BMI, operation time, hospitalization time and postoperative VAS score were finally determined as risk factors for postoperative complications in TKA patients (all P<0.05). The ROC curve showed that the area under the curve (AUC) of the the nomogram model was 0.958 (95%CI: 0.926~0.990). The calibration curve showed that the model’s predicted probabilities align well with the actual probabilities, indicating that the model has good calibration performance. The DCA results indicated that within most threshold ranges, the model curve was higher than the two extreme curves, and the clinical net benefit was relatively high. Conclusion BMI, operation time, hospitalization time and postoperative VAS score are the factors affecting postoperative complications in TKA patients. The constructed nomogram model based on these factors can be used for clinical prediction of the occurrence of postoperative complications in TKA patients, and can assist in formulating targeted intervention strategies.

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贾东辉,杨振辉,路媛媛.全膝关节置换术后发生并发症的列线图预测模型构建[J].生物医学工程学进展,2026,(4):32-36

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  • 收稿日期:2026-03-25
  • 最后修改日期:2026-05-11
  • 录用日期:2026-05-14
  • 在线发布日期: 2026-10-20
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